摘要：Financing government budget deficit through emission of government bonds may create a crowding out in corporate bond market. Crowding out caused the cost of funds incurred by the corporation to be expensive so the corporate bond market is stagnant and banks become the only major source of funding. Sources of funding that are so dependent on the banking sector could threaten financial stability and the country’s economy as a whole because of the banks’ systemic risk. Default of a bank not only can influence other banks but also can have a serious impact on the national economy. This research empirically examine the phenomenon of crowding out in Indonesia with a fixed effect model of panel data FGLS and show existence of crowding out, where the yield spread tends to rise when the government issued new debt securities. But the rise in the yield spread was more due to the increase in Credit Default Swaps (CDS) spreads which reflect the default risk of Indonesia, as well as showing the influence of foreign investors in the Indonesian capital market which is strongly influenced by CDS.
其他摘要：Pendanaan defisit anggaran pemerintah melalui emisi surat utang negara (SUN) dapat memunculkan crowding out di pasar surat utang korporasi. Crowding out menyebabkan biaya dana yang ditanggung oleh korporasi menjadi mahal sehingga pasar surat utang korporasi tidak berkembang sebagai sumber pendanaan perusahaan dan perbankan menjadi satusatunya sumber utama pendanaan. Sumber pendanaan perusahaan yang terlalu bergantung kepada sektor perbankan dapat mengancam stabilitas keuangan dan ekonomi negara secara keseluruhan karena adanya risiko sistemik bank. Default sebuah bank tidak saja dapat menyeret bank-bank lain namun dapat berdampak serius terhadap perekonomian nasional. Riset ini menguji secara empirik fenomena crowding out di Indonesia dengan model panel data fixed effect FGLS dan menunjukkan adanya crowding out, dimana yield spread cenderung naik ketika pemerintah mengeluarkan surat utang baru. Namun kenaikan yield spread itu lebih banyak disebabkan naiknya Credit Default Swaps (CDS) spread yang mencerminkan risiko default Indonesia, sekaligus menunjukkan besarnya pengaruh investor asing di pasar modal Indonesia yang sangat dipengaruhi CDS ini.
