摘要：Having in mind t the debt level and scope of the current trade defi cit in Serbia,the problem of sustainability of external debt service is of utmost importance in case of reduction or interruption of capital infl ows.Th e issue of sustainability of external debt service is a complex issue and requires a complex analytical approach.Debt crises in middle income countries such as Serbia may arise at a moderate level of external debt if the country’s previous history with regard to payment of debts and infl ation is not good.Th e high level of debt aff ects that the country becomes vulnerable to shocks in the growth rate,exchange rate changes,the sudden cessation of capital infl ow,etc.Th e danger lies behind the strong depreciation of the dinar and the emergence of infl ation which would signifi cantly aff ect the increase in debt.Th e growing trend of Serbian foreign debt since 2008.by 2011.is the result of a depreciation of the dinar.Th e payment of debt requires increased exports or reduced consumption.Th e fi rst way is better,but it depends on the speed of progress in reforms.For now it seems that the buff er for external shocks is a suffi cient level of foreign reserves.Serbia in next period will have a great need for external fi nancing.Th e payment of debts requires GDP growth that is not based on consumption growth.
其他摘要：Kada se ima u vidu rizik da zbog nivoa zaduženosti i postojećeg obima spoljnotrgovinskog defi cita zemlje – u slučaju smanjenja ili prekida priliva kapitala – dođe do nelikvidnosti i nemogućnosti servisiranja tekućih obaveza,problem održivosti servisiranja spoljnog duga je od prvorazrednog značaja.Zemlje sa niskim kreditnim rejtingom često ulaze u dužničku krizu na niskim stopama zaduženosti.Dužnička kriza u srednje razvijenim zemljama,kakva je Srbija,može da izbije i pri umerenom nivou spoljnog duga ako prethodna istorija zemlje u pogledu plaćanja dugova i infl acije nije dobra i ako je kao takvu ocene strani kreditori.Održivost javnih fi nansija u uslovima globalne fi nansijske neizvesnosti će u narednom periodu biti tas na vagi za percepciju rizika zemlje.Indikatori eksterne i budžetske pozicije se poslednjih godina ubrzano pogoršavaju.U narednim godinama,prema procenama MMF-a,rastu potrebe za fi nansiranjem rastuće amortizacije duga i Srbija postaje zavisna od priliva kapitala.
