摘要：Many of benefi ts that FDI provide to host countries with infl uence that they represent one of the most popular forms of obtaining fresh capital which will,among other things,initiate economic fl ows,accelerate process of economic transformations,raise employment and reduce infl ation in developing countries.Primarily Croatia and than Serbia become a very attractive investment destinations in recent year which are engaging for many foreign investors who in these countries face with friendly investment laws,tax incentives,highly educated and in the same time cheap labor force,favorable work policies and other benefi ts.Since Croatia became a full member of the European Union and Serbia get candidate status for membership,signifi cant FDI infl ows and investors who will be motivated by the new European status of these countries and also by all benefi ts which that status provide are expected in the future.By observing the movement of FDI infl ows in Serbia and Croatia since 1992 when these countries have left the state community and became an independent states until the last year,2012 and by the application of statistical method of linear trend expected values of FDI infl ows in these countries will be determined in the present.Th us,the object of this research is FDI infl ows in Serbia and Croatia in the past twenty one years,manifested former variation as well as future tendencies in development of analyzed phenomena.Th e primary aim of this paper is to prove that variations of analyzed phenomena in observed period are statistically signifi cant and that tendency of development apropos trend is expressed.Using statistical method of linear trend,useful data on average annual increase of FDI in Serbia and Croatia will be reached as well as the standard deviation values of analyzed data from the trend line,the expected value of FDI infl ows in 2013 and the confi dence interval in which mentioned value could be found.Research is completed with conclusion that in 2013 the value of FDI infl ows can be expected in the amount of 3313,3905•106 US$ in Serbia and 3294,5905•106 US$ in Croatia,provided that the observed phenomenon behaves according to linear trend in that year as well.
其他摘要：Mnoge pogodnosti koje strane direktne investicije obezbeđuju zemljama domaćinima utiču da one predstavljaju jedan od najpoželjnijih oblika pribavljanja svežeg kapitala koji će,između ostalog,ubrzati ekonomske tokove,podstaći nastavak procesa privrednih transformacija,povećati zaposlenost i smanjiti stopu infl acije u zemljama u razvoju.Prvenstveno Hrvatska,a zatim i Srbija su poslednjih godina postale veoma atraktivne investicione destinacije,privlačne mnogim inostranim investitorima koji u ovim zemljama nailaze na prijateljski nastrojene zakone o investiranju,mnogobrojne poreske podsticaje,visoko obrazovanu i u isto vreme jeftinu radnu snagu,veoma povoljne zakone o radu kao i na druge pogodnosti.Analiziranjem prethodnog kretanja ulaznih tokova stranih direktnih investicija u Srbiji i Hrvatskoj od 1992.godine,pošto je došlo do raspada državne zajednice i osamostaljivanja ovih država,pa sve do 2012.godine kao i primenom statističke metode linearnog trenda odrediće se očekivane vrednosti ulaznih tokova stranih direktnih investicija u pomenutim zemljama u aktuelnoj godini.Prema tome,predmet istraživanja su ulazni tokovi stranih direktnih investicija u Srbiji i Hrvatskoj realizovani u proteklih dvadeset i jednu godinu,ispoljene prethodne varijacije kao i buduće tendencije u kretanju analizirane pojave.Prevashodni cilj ovog rada se odnosi na dokazivanje da su varijacije analizirane pojave u posmatranom vremenskom periodu statistički značajne i da je izražena razvojna tendencija te pojave,odnosno trend.Primenom statističke metode linearnog trenda doći će se do veoma korisnih podataka o prosečnom godišnjem porastu vrednosti ulaznih tokova stranih direktnih investicija u Srbiji i Hrvatskoj,zatim o prosečnom odstupanju vrednosti analiziranih podataka od linije trenda,očekivanoj vrednosti ulaznih tokova stranih direktnih investicija u 2013.godini kao i o intervalu poverenja u kom se pomenuta vrednost može naći.
