摘要：This study investigated the streamflow impacts in wet and dry spells using a statistical downscaling projection method to obtain 5 km girds under four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Two upstream catchments, the Dahan and Laonong Rivers were selected as the study areas. A water balance hydrological model, also known as the Generalized Watershed Loading Function model, was used to simulate the streamflow impacts. There are 126 projections from 41 general circulation models (GCMs) and 4 RCPs used in this analysis. The analytical results indicate that the streamflow impacts in different RCP scenarios are significant but vary with individual GCM’s projection. The variance of 20 selected GCMs is close to that of all other GCMs. Typically, more than 60% of GCMs project that in the early 21 st century, streamflow in each RCP increases by 0 - 40% in wet spells and decrease by -40 ~ 0% for the Dahan River, but the streamflow increases during both wet and dry spells for the Laonong River. In the late 21 st century, the streamflow decreases by 60% during dry spells in the Laonong River. Various predictions for the early and late 21 st century show high variance of streamflow impacts. As such, decision makers must plan for reservoir operation and flexible water deployment adaptations during future dry spells.
关键词：RCP; Statistical downscaling; Water balance model; Variance; GCM;
