期刊名称：Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation
印刷版ISSN：1460-7425
出版年度：2018
卷号：21
期号：4
页码：1-25
DOI：10.18564/jasss.3812
出版社：University of Surrey, Department of Sociology
摘要：Future climate change is expected to have greater impacts on societies whose livelihoods rely on subsistence agricultural systems. Adaptation is essential for mitigating adverse eects of climate change, to sustain rural livelihoods and ensure future food security. We present an agent-based model, called OMOLANDCA, which explores the impact of climate change on the adaptive capacity of rural communities in the South Omo Zone of Ethiopia. The purpose of the model is to answer research questions on the resilience and adaptive capacity of rural households with respect to variations in climate, socioeconomic factors, and land-use at the local level. Our model explicitly represents the socio-cognitive behavior of rural households toward climate change and resource flows that prompt agents to diversify their production strategy under dierent climatic conditions. Results from the model show that successive episodes of extreme events (e.g., droughts) aect the adaptive capacity of households, causing them to migrate from the region. Nonetheless, rural communities in the South Omo Zone, and in the model, manage to endure in spite of such harsh climatic change conditions.
