摘要：The article is devoted to the pressing problem of managing the reliability and durability of transport constructions. Modern scientific approaches to assessing the technical condition of transport facilities based on an analysis of element degradation during the life cycle of operation considered. The article presents the advantages and disadvantages of the most common prediction models of the technical condition of building structures. Each model uses a characteristic criterion for degradation of building structures: load and unload cycles, rejection number of chlorides, intensity coefficient, a geometric parameter (parameters) of the crack in the material, reliability, etc. The problem of choosing the control parameter of the lifecycle model of the bridge elements is analyzed. The theoretical basis for the Markov phenomenological model of damage accumulation and the model of degradation based on the physical and mechanical characteristics of the material formulated. Depending on the stage of the life cycle, it is proposed to select the type of prediction model.
