摘要：Taking the altyn fault zone as the study area, the maxwell layered viscoelastic medium model and the PSGRN / PSCMP program were used to study the evolution of the cumulative coulomb stress over the altyn fault from 1900 to 2020, analyze the future seismic hazards of faults in the altyn fault zone. The results show that: the minfeng earthquake and changma earthquake were mainly caused by the long-term tectonic loading of the altyn fault. The wuzunxiaoer S8 section and the shulehe 4 S18 south section were affected by the combined effects of the changma earthquake and long-term earthquake loading. In particular, the maximum cumulative coulomb stress of shulehe 4 S18 south section is 2.58Mpa,which is a great danger to strong earthquakes.
