标题：Une méthodologie de la modélisation en géohistoire : de la chronologie (spatialisée) des événements au fonctionnement du système par la mise en correspondance spatiale et temporelle
期刊名称：Physio-Géo. Géographie, physique, et environnement
电子版ISSN：1958-573X
出版年度：2019
期号：Volume 14
页码：1-21
DOI：10.4000/physio-geo.9186
出版社：Martin, Claude
摘要：Issu des travaux précurseurs de F.BRAUDEL (1949), le néologisme "géohistoire" a été notamment remis au goût du jour par les géographes C.GRATALOUP, dans les années 1990, puis N.JACOB-ROUSSEAU, dans la décennie suivante.Parmi les acceptions de la géohistoire rencontrées dans la littérature (J.LÉVY et M.LUSSAULT, 2003 ; S.BEUCHER et M.REGHEZZA, 2005 ; G.DJAMENT-TRAN, 2005 ; N.JACOB-ROUSSEAU, 2009 ; J.M.ANTOINE, 2010 ; V.CAPDEPUY et G.DJAMENT-TRAN, 2012 ; M.FRANCHOMME et al ., 2014 ; D.GRAMOND, 2014 ; C.GRATALOUP, 2002, 2015), celle de C.GRATALOUP (2015) " ne privilégie ni la dimension temporelle (histoire), ni la dimension [spatiale, donc] géographique ".Comme lui, nous pensons que cette démarche se place à l'interface de l'histoire et de la géographie.Elle dépasse ainsi la segmentation de la structuration des savoirs en deux disciplines distinctes par la mise en commun d'outils, concepts et méthodes dans une approche intégrée participant tant de la problématisation de l'objet que de son étude (F.GIACONA, 2014).
其他摘要：Within the frame of the spatio-temporal analysis of natural hazards, geohistory is a meaningful approach to obtain and exploit (geo)chronologies. This article formalizes a scientific approach aiming at capturing the risk system in its entirety (factors, processes, and dynamics at play). It is based on systemic analysis, already promoted by geographers, but currently little used in geohistory, and it involves four successive steps: construction of a database of events, documentation of their socio-historical and bio-physical contexts, mapping between the events and their drivers, and finally determination of a qualitative model of how the system works. These steps are discussed and illustrated using examples from the literature. The review shows that numerous chronologies have already been proposed for natural hazards, but these cannot be directly interpreted in terms of the evolution of phenomena or risks. To apprehend these, it is necessary to replace documented events in their social and bio-physical context, that is to say, to analyze the main factors that can explain the evolution of their spatial and temporal distributions. The article proposes an operational checklist for this contextualization step. Once this is done, it is possible to consider the risk system in its entirety, each of its subsystems (the natural subsystem and/or the societal subsystem), and to confront the spatial and temporal distributions of events with the evolution of potentially explanatory factors. Spatial and temporal mapping allows concomitances or offsets to be highlighted and, as a result, provides explanations for the evolutions observed. A final step that identifies the main effects at play leads to a qualitative modeling of the risk system provided through a simplified graphical representation. The latter, even if it remains for now little used in practice and may be difficult to obtain, is a reflection and communication tool that is both efficient and elegant.
