摘要：The author carries out a cointegration analysis for the nominal exchange rate of the zloty against the euro according to a monetary theory developed by U.S.economist Jeffrey A.Frankel (1979).Wdowiński estimates a cointegration vector for the period 1999M7-2008M9.Long-term estimates show that the euro exchange rate depends on changes in industrial production and on short- and long-term interest rates, the author says.The influence of M1 money supply proves to be statistically insignificant.The departure of the euro rate from a state of monetary equilibrium was corrected slowly, the author says, because the half-life of the divergence was almost two years. The solution of the model showed that the euro exchange rate diverged significantly from a state of equilibrium determined by fundamental factors in the 1999M7-2004M1 period, while showing smaller deviations in the 2004M2-2008M9 period.Overall, the author observed periods when the zloty was both overvalued and undervalued against the euro due to a long-term equilibrium rate.The deviations stabilized noticeably from May 2003.In the 2003M5-2006M3 period, the zloty was overvalued by 9.6% on average, while in the 2006M4-2008M9 period it was undervalued by 9.3%.In the short term, the zloty tended to appreciate as a result of increases in short-term interest rates. According to the author, fundamental economic factors in Poland and the euro area point to the existence of a trend whereby the zloty is gaining ground against the euro, while short-term changes in this rate may be significant due to a growing macroeconomic risk.
