摘要:This paper applies a framework for monitoring vulnerabilities in the residential real estate sector to the case of Poland.The framework considers indicators across three dimensions of real estate-related vulnerabilities, i.e.valuation, household indebtedness and the bank credit cycle, and builds a composite model-free measure shown to have a significant forecasting performance for real estate crises.The paper shows how the monitoring can be implemented for the Polish market, discusses the developments from a historical perspective, and highlights remaining data gaps.
关键词:real estate vulnerabilities; real estate market in Poland; risk monitoring; real estate crises