期刊名称：Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography
电子版ISSN：1600-0870
出版年度：1994
卷号：46
期号：4
页码：529-540
DOI：10.3402/tellusa.v46i4.15642
摘要：A coupled-ocean atmosphere model with demonstrated skill in ENSO prediction is used to examine limits to predictability due to stochastic momentum forcing from the atmosphere. Previous estimates of predictability limits in coupled models may be overly optimistic because of the absence of realistic atmospheric noise in the intermediate atmospheric model used. It is found that unavoidable error grows rapidly with a time scale of 4 or so months. It then saturates at a level around 0.5 °C for the Niño 3 region.
