期刊名称：Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography
电子版ISSN：1600-0870
出版年度：2000
卷号：52
期号：4
页码：455-469
DOI：10.3402/tellusa.v52i4.12274
摘要：The dynamics of daily weather types according to Schu¨epp’s classification in the Alpine regionis investigated by means of seasonal Markov chain models. A logit model is employed for thetransition probabilities of the Markov chain. The parameters follow from a maximum likelihoodestimation. A 1st- and a 2nd-order Markov chain model are compared and found to yield verysimilar results. Model predictions are compared with counted frequencies of seasonally-averagedjoint probabilities for the occurrence of weather types at subsequent days, monthly-averagedprobabilities of a change of the weather type from one to the next day, and daily averages ofthe probabilities of occurrence of the different weather types. All these predictions coincide withthe observations within the statistical limits. The only large deviations occur in the tails of thelengths distributions of uninterrupted episodes of the two most frequent weather types.
