摘要：The aim of the study: to show the complexity and heterogeneity
of inflation processes, which break down into inflation processes
of sectoral economies, to conduct a comparative analysis of
prices using two-dimensional distributions, to show the difference
between the inflationary component in the investment and construction
sector of the economy from inflation indicators, used
in everyday real estate valuation practice, to propose a method
for calculating the level of inflation that appraisers could use
independently, based on current market data.
The system and comparative analysis, method of analogies, the
content analysis were used as methods of the research. The
main attention is paid to the use of multidimensional statistical
analysis, the use of the logarithmically normal distribution model
as distributions that adequately reflect the asymmetric empirical
distribution of prices and convenient from a computational point
of view, and the conclusion of the calculation formulas derived
from the corresponding hypothesis. The latest data, published by
Rosstat on the dynamics of prices for different groups of goods,
as well as data from one of the construction companies of Saint
Petersburg were used as statistical materials. The study is divided
into the following stages: calculation of the inflation rate for the
product group, based on the hypothesis of jointly logarithmically
normal distribution of prices of the reference group of goods in the
base year and in the year of comparison, as well as the hypothesis
of logarithmically normal distribution of the weights of the
consumer basket, comparison of the result with the official data,
then a similar calculation of the inflation rate in the evaluation of
objects in the investment and construction sector of the economy.
Results: the authors propose a method of determining the rate
of inflation in the evaluation of market value income approach
based on statistical analysis of the market data. The method
allows setting the estimated inflation rate, acceptable for the
construction industry and the tasks of assessing the real estate
income approach. Conclusion: In the evaluation of the real estate, it is necessary
to study more thoroughly the sectoral inflation rates, since the
forced use in the evaluation of the real estate data on inflation
in the consumer sector is not always correct. General questions
of the inflation rate estimation and deflator coefficients by the
market data based on two-dimensional distributions of random
variables are raised. Modern methods of big data processing,
technical capabilities, a large number of software products on
the market, the prospects of the digital economy pose the task
of creating extensive and accessible to appraisers and analysts
databases, equipped with analytical tools. The goal is difficult,
because the carriers of reliable information (such as retail chains,
for example) often avoid publicity. In this regard, there is a task
to coordinate the efforts of the scientific community and business
to solve common modern problems and challenges.
关键词：инфляция; уровень инфляции; дефлятор; стохастическая модель ценообразования; логарифмически нормальный закон распределения
