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  • 标题:INDICADORES DE INFLACIÓN SUBYACENTE PARA COSTA RICA BASADOS EN EXCLUSIÓN Y EN REPONDERACIÓN
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Adolfo Rodríguez Vargas ; Melissa Vega Monge
  • 期刊名称:Revista de Ciencias Economicas
  • 印刷版ISSN:0252-9521
  • 电子版ISSN:2215-3489
  • 出版年度:2014
  • 卷号:32
  • 期号:1
  • 页码:117-162
  • DOI:10.15517/rce.v32i1.15055
  • 出版社:Universidad de Costa Rica
  • 摘要:We evaluate the performance of new core inflation indicators for Costa Rica, computed through the exclusion or reweighting of the items in the CPI basket. We construct exclusion indicators based on the elimination of fixed categories of the CPI, as well as alternative versions of an indicator calculated by excluding articles according to their volatility, using data updated to December 2012. We also construct two types of reweighted indicators: one type using volatility measures and the other using persistence measures. Persistence reweighting is based either on the estimated spectrum of the series of price changes, three indicators based in an autoregressive coefficients methodology, a meanreversion indictor, or an indicator based on the correlation of each series of price changes with variations in future inflation. For each indicator, we evaluate unbiasedness, fit to trend inflation, predictive ability and long-run behaviour. From the results of this evaluation, we recommend monitoring one of the volatility-weighted indicators and one of the persistence-weighted indicators.
  • 关键词:inflación subyacente; volatilidad; persistencia; insesgamiento; pronósticos.
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