摘要：The 2009 Law On Pastures in Kyrgyzstan led to implementation of a community-based pasture management plan (CBPMP) as of 2010, aimed at strengthening pasture governance through improving current pasture use practices and controlling stocking rates at pastures. In the context of implementing CBPMP tools, this research explored farmers' decision-making on herd sizes and land use. This contributes to addressing the theme “Transformations Towards Sustainability” of the Future Earth Strategic Research Agenda 2014, especially how environmental and socioeconomic changes affect individual and collective attitudes and behaviors. Questionnaire-based interviews were conducted with 127 pasture users who obtained pasture tickets (ie the right to use a certain pasture) from 5 Pasture Committees. We divided pasture users into large-herd owners and herders, based on livestock numbers owned and herding practices. In its first use of this type, we employed the Heckman 2-stage model to examine the likely impact of diverse factors on farmers' decisions on herd size and land use change. We found that increases in livestock numbers were significantly associated with insecurity and economic factors, while decreases were related to environmental changes. Similarly, decisions on land use change were significantly influenced by farming-practice difficulties, changing condition of pastures, and increasing incidences of livestock disease due in part to the impact of climate change. We also found that some of the infrastructure provided by pasture committees appears to be ineffective and may even worsen the condition of pastures. As we found indications that large-herd owners in particular were interested in maintaining pasture quality (eg decreasing animal numbers if pastures were in poor condition), we suggest that CBPMPs should include different incentives for distinct groups of farmers to address the ecological and socioeconomic problems associated with land use changes.
关键词：Decision-making; community-based pasture management; Heckman model; herding service; Kyrgyzstan
