出版社：Government of the Russian Federation, Financial University
摘要：Subject. After the recent papers of leading economists on the Russian economy, the Author examines the influence of external factors of 2014–2016 on the merchandise export structure quality and on the Russian economic growth through the prism of the “Dutch decease” impact. Purpose. The research was focused on clarification whether the export structure quality improves or if the Russian economic growth model is becoming more sustainable after the mentioned events. Methods. The official data were subject to statistical processing in order to use some research methods designed by the author. There are new aggregation schemes for goods and destinations of foreign trade and the estimation of the financial attractiveness gradient of industries for investors. The application of the proposed methods makes it possible to derive qualitative indicators of non-commodity export and to assess its impact on the Russian economic growth. Results. The author shows that the qualitative estimations obtained by mainstream researchers could be greatly distorted without taking into account of some important commodity market features. So, the main result of this study is the initial hypothesis confirmation that the 2014 events pushed Russia’s exports towards improving the quality of its structure within the framework of specified definitions. Based on these results and some other publications, the author concludes that the Russian economy has the prerequisites for a transition to quality economic growth. The quantitative assessment of the transition to a new model of economic growth will require some further research on the topic.
关键词：модель экономического роста; голландская болезнь; структурные изменения; фундаментальные факторы; нерентный экспорт; градиент финансовой привлекательности отраслей; влияние конъюнктуры сырьевых рынков
