摘要：Dementia is a major public health issue worldwide and chronic use of benzodiazepine, which is very frequent in northern countries, was found to be a risk factor of dementia. This work aims at evaluating the impact of a reduction in chronic use of benzodiazepine on the future burden of dementia in France. Using estimations of dementia incidence and of benzodiazepine use and nation-wide projections of mortality and population sizes, a Monte Carlo approach based on an illness-death model provided projections of several indicators of dementia burden. With no change in benzodiazepine consumption, the prevalence of dementia between age 65 and 99 in France in 2040 was estimated at 2.16 millions (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.93–2.38), with a life expectancy without dementia at 65 years equal to 25.0 years (24.7–25.3) for women and 23.8 years (23.5–24.2) for men. Assuming a disappearance of chronic use of benzodiazepine in 2020, the prevalence would be reduced by about 6.6% in 2040 and the life expectancy without dementia would increase by 0.99 (0.93–1.06) year among women and 0.56 (0.50–0.62) among men. To conclude, a modest but significant reduction in future dementia burden could be obtained by applying current recommendation for duration of benzodiazepine use.
