期刊名称：International Journal of Advanced Computer Science and Applications(IJACSA)
印刷版ISSN：2158-107X
电子版ISSN：2156-5570
出版年度：2020
卷号：11
期号：5
DOI：10.14569/IJACSA.2020.0110551
出版社：Science and Information Society (SAI)
摘要：The accidents happening to buildings and other human facilitation sectors due to poor water supply pipelining system is a random phenomenon, but an efficient estimation system can help to escape from such accidents. Such a system can be useful in assisting the caretakers to take the initiative measures to avoid the occurrence of the accidents or at least reduce the associated risk. In this paper, we target this issue by proposing a water supply pipelines risk estimation methodology using feed forward backpropagation neural network (FFBPNN). For validation and performance evaluation, real data of water supply pipelines collected in Seoul, Republic of South Korea from 1987 to 2010 is used. A comprehensive analysis is performed in order to get reasonable results with both original and pre-processed input data. Pre-processing consists of two steps: data normalization and statistical moments computation. Statistical moments are mean, variance, kurtosis and skewness. Significant improvement in prediction accuracy is observed with data pre-processing in terms of selected performance metrics, such as mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean squared error (RMSE).
关键词：Neural networks; normalization; risk index; mean square error; statistical moments
