The aim of the study is to estimate the effect of the Russian academic excellence project (Project 5-100) on the publication activity of the University of Tyumen, measured by the number of articles published in journals indexed in the Web of Science database. The hypothesis of the research is that there is a positive causal relationship between the number of published articles and the University’s participation in Project 5-100. This impact was estimated empirically for the University of Tyumen while the other university participants (31 universities) were taken as a control group. Counterfactual scenarios are used to find the number of articles that the university employees would have published in the absence of Project 5-100. Thus, it is shown that, despite the failure to meet the goal of entering the top 200 of world universities in the ranking for ecology and agricultural biology, the University of Tyumen benefited from its participation in Project 5-100: its number of publications, especially in journals of the first and second quartile, has been growing faster than in the control group of universities.