期刊名称：Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
电子版ISSN：1942-2466
出版年度：2020
卷号：12
期号：12
页码：307-323
DOI：10.1029/2020MS002108
出版社：John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
摘要：Parameterizations of unresolved turbulent processes often compromise the fidelity of large-scale ocean models. In this work, we argue for a Bayesian approach to the refinement and evaluation of turbulence parameterizations. Using an ensemble of large eddy simulations of turbulent penetrative convection in the surface boundary layer, we demonstrate the method by estimating the uncertainty of parameters in the convective limit of the popular “K-Profile Parameterization.” We uncover structural deficiencies and propose an alternative scaling that overcomes them.
