首页    期刊浏览 2024年11月23日 星期六
登录注册

文章基本信息

  • 标题:An empirical approach toward the SLCP reduction targets in Asia for the mid-term climate change mitigation
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Hajime Akimoto ; Tatsuya Nagashima ; Hiroshi Tanimoto
  • 期刊名称:Progress in Earth and Planetary Science
  • 电子版ISSN:2197-4284
  • 出版年度:2020
  • 卷号:7
  • 期号:1
  • 页码:1-11
  • DOI:10.1186/s40645-020-00385-5
  • 出版社:Springer Verlag
  • 摘要:Although importance of co-control of SLCPs together with the emission reduction of CO 2 has attracted much attention for the mid-term climate change mitigation, the contribution to radiative forcing (RF) is rather complex, and chemistry-climate model analysis for the future scenario tends to give a “black box” for the contribution of each species. In order to deliver a more straightforward message on the effect of the reduction of SLCPs to policymakers, we propose “top-down” reduction targets of CH 4 and tropospheric O 3 in reference to the historical levels of their RF. Although the RF increase due to the increasing CO 2 concentration is inevitable in mid-term future (ca. 0.80 W m −2 in 2040), the RF of CH 4 and O 3 is expected to decrease from 0.48 to 0.41, 0.34, 0.27, and 0.22 W m −2 , and from 0.40 to 0.29, 0.23, 0.19, and 0.15 W m −2 , respectively, if their atmospheric concentrations decrease from the level of 2010 to those of 1980, 1970, 1960, and 1950, according to the IPCC 2013 database. Consequently, the sum of ΔRF x (CH 4 ) and ΔRF x (O 3 ) (the difference of RF between the target year of x and 2010 as the base year) are 0.18, 0.31, 0.42, and 0.51 W m −2 in 1980, 1970, 1960, and 1950, indicating that the increase of ΔRF 2040 (CO 2 ) can be compensated by 23, 39, 53, and 64%, respectively. The policy target can be selected from the combination of different target years each for CH 4 and O 3 . With this global reduction ratio, the necessary reductions in CH 4 , NO x , and NMVOC in Asia were estimated and compared with the GAINS model-based cost-beneficial reduction amount proposed by the Solution Report prepared under UN Environment Asia and the Pacific Office. In order to attain the targeted reduced emission level of CH 4 and NO x , new technology/practice for the reduction of livestock emission of CH 4 and energy transformation from fossil fuel to renewable energy is highly advantageous for NO x reduction from industrial/power plant sources.
  • 其他摘要:Abstract

    Although importance of co-control of SLCPs together with the emission reduction of CO 2 has attracted much attention for the mid-term climate change mitigation, the contribution to radiative forcing (RF) is rather complex, and chemistry-climate model analysis for the future scenario tends to give a “black box” for the contribution of each species. In order to deliver a more straightforward message on the effect of the reduction of SLCPs to policymakers, we propose “top-down” reduction targets of CH 4 and tropospheric O 3 in reference to the historical levels of their RF. Although the RF increase due to the increasing CO 2 concentration is inevitable in mid-term future (ca. 0.80 W m −2 in 2040), the RF of CH 4 and O 3 is expected to decrease from 0.48 to 0.41, 0.34, 0.27, and 0.22 W m −2 , and from 0.40 to 0.29, 0.23, 0.19, and 0.15 W m −2 , respectively, if their atmospheric concentrations decrease from the level of 2010 to those of 1980, 1970, 1960, and 1950, according to the IPCC 2013 database. Consequently, the sum of ΔRF x (CH 4 ) and ΔRF x (O 3 ) (the difference of RF between the target year of x and 2010 as the base year) are 0.18, 0.31, 0.42, and 0.51 W m −2 in 1980, 1970, 1960, and 1950, indicating that the increase of ΔRF 2040 (CO 2 ) can be compensated by 23, 39, 53, and 64%, respectively. The policy target can be selected from the combination of different target years each for CH 4 and O 3 . With this global reduction ratio, the necessary reductions in CH 4 , NO x , and NMVOC in Asia were estimated and compared with the GAINS model-based cost-beneficial reduction amount proposed by the Solution Report prepared under UN Environment Asia and the Pacific Office. In order to attain the targeted reduced emission level of CH 4 and NO x , new technology/practice for the reduction of livestock emission of CH 4 and energy transformation from fossil fuel to renewable energy is highly advantageous for NO x reduction from industrial/power plant sources.

  • 关键词:SLCP; Asian emission control; CH4; NOx; NMVOC
国家哲学社会科学文献中心版权所有