摘要：The paper is devoted to the problem of the reliability analysis the functioning of the hybrid energy source based on the wind power plant (WPP) and the combined heat and power plant (CHPP). The main effect of the proposed technology is substituting a part of the fossil fuel used at CHPP (or other heat sources) for the production of electricity and thermal energy. At the same time, CHPP operates according to the heat schedule, i.e. in accordance with changes in the heat loads of consumers. In this regard, the attention in the study is focused on the problem of the reliability analysis of the heat supply (heating) from a hybrid energy source. To assess the reliability of heat supply, one of the main complex reliability index (RI) is used - the availability factor (AF), and the system of equations of a stationary markov process is used as a mathematical model of the states evolution of the studied object. Calculation of AF is made in accordance with seasonal changes in heat loads (annual heat load schedule); the heat storage effect of consumers (thermal inertia) and the factor of a possible decrease in wind speed are also additionally taken into account. Case study is carried out on a test circuit of the hybrid energy source (WPP CHPP), as a result of which some analytical characteristics are obtained.
