摘要：Given that the integration of renewable energy generation systems may have the potential to satisfy the electrical requirements of remote areas, this paper consists of a feasibility study with the focus on integrating renewable generation into the energy system of Popova Island. It adopts an analytical approach that consists in applying the Monte Carlo method, an energy systems model, and then evaluating the financial outcomes. In so doing, the approach takes into account the inherent uncertainties and risks of various input parameters. Thus, Multiple Monte Carlo-based parameterisations define scenarios that are fed into the Hybrid Optimization of Multiple Energy Resources (HOMER) energy model. The broad set of result scenarios can provide a valuable reference for stakeholders, and effectively communicate its potential for increased renewables, the resulting system configurations, and reduced electricity costs.
关键词：Energy mix system ; LCOE ; Probabilistic model ; Uncertainty analysis
