摘要：The EU is committed to increasing the use of renewable energy sources. In the sector of transportation, the share of renewable energy is to reach 10% by 2020 and 14% by 2030, respectively, in the EU. According to the latest forecasts, the production of the first-generation biofuels made from food raw materials is showing a declining tendency in the main European producing countries. Therefore, the objective of our research is to forecast the production of some selected biofuel producing countries within the EU as well as the traditional biofuel production in Hungary. The question of land use changes due to the new regulations is crucial. Our examinations were carried out by using Verhulst’s logistic function based on the biofuel production data of EUROSTAT. The function has already reached the saturation level in Germany, France and Sweden but in the case of other examined countries, biofuel production is also in the phase of slowing growth. Furthermore, findings are also justified by the 2015 regulation that restricts the share of producing first-generation biofuels in the final energy consumption to 7% and promotes the production of advanced biofuels, thereby decreasing the indirect change in land use and increasing sustainable crop production.
关键词：forecast; land use; logistic function; primary biomass
