期刊名称：Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi
电子版ISSN：2564-6931
出版年度：2016
卷号：9
期号：1
DOI：10.25287/ohuiibf.211609
语种：English
出版社：Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi
摘要：Tourism sector,like most of the other countries of the world,has also gained importance in Turkey in last few decades. Global tourist flows and tourism income have a steady increase. Hence,as an effective tool for sustainable economic development and welfare,importance of tourism sector is rising. Tourism is a considerable source of an additional income,exchange,employment and tax revenue for most countries. Turkey is one of the prominent tourism destinations for the world tourist flows. For a sustainably growing and productive tourism sector it is essential to reduce the volatility in tourist arrivals. A less volatile tourist inflow may help to policy and decision makers. So,understanding the volatility of tourism demand can reduce the uncertainty and help to develop appropriate policies. This paper aims to conduct such an analysis for Turkey’s inbound tourist flow,using the monthly data for 1996-2011period. Exploiting alternative ARCH type models to measure and investigate the volatility in international tourist arrivals,the study concluded that the volatility of tourist arrivals to Turkey is asymmetric: positive shocks have a differential impact on future volatility than negative shocks.
其他摘要：Turizm sektörü son yıllarda,diğer pek çok gelişmekte olan ülkede olduğu gibi Türkiye’de de önem kazanmıştır. Küresel turist akımları ve turizm gelirleri istikrarlı bir gelişme göstermektedir. Bu nedenle,sürdürülebilir kalkınma ve refah açısından etkili bi
