摘要：With the inclusion of demographic characteristics of the population living in vulnerable
areas, a combination of empirical and climate models was used to project changes
to climate and in hydro-geo-meteorological disasters in Brazil. This study investigated
the effect of extreme rainfall changes and the risk of floods and landslides under 1.5,
2.0, and 4.0◦
C global warming levels (GWLs). Projections from a large ensemble of
pre-CMIP6 models and different warming levels show a remarkable change in heavy
precipitation. As a result, with increasing warming this enhances the risk of landslides
and flash floods in the context of climate change. Comparisons of vulnerability and
change in potential impacts of landslides and floods show that three regions, highly
densely populated areas, are the most exposed to landslides and floods. The Southern
and Southeastern of Brazil stand out, including metropolitan regions with high economic
development and densely populated, which may be those where disasters can intensify
both in terms of frequency and magnitude. The eastern portion of the Northeast is also
signaled as one of the affected regions due to its high vulnerability and exposure since the
present period, although the projections of future climate do not allow conclusive results
regarding the intensification of extreme rainfall events in scenarios below 4◦C. The main
metropolitan regions and tourist resorts, and key infrastructure in Brazil are located in
those regions. This study highlights the importance of environmental policies to protect
human lives and minimize financial losses in the coming decades and reinforces the need
for decision-making, monitoring, and early warning systems to better manage disasters
as part of disaster risk reduction risk management.
