摘要：The presence of bronchial mucus plugs (BMP) in children with Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia (MPP) results in delayed clinical and radiographic resolution and long-standing pulmonary sequelae. The predictive factors associated with BMP formation remains poorly defined. Nomograms to predict BMP presence in children with MPP were proposed using a cohort of patients who underwent bronchoscopy intervention at Children’s Hospital in Eastern China. Patients with MPP in an earlier period formed the training cohort (n = 872) for nomogram development, and those thereafter formed the validation cohort (n = 399) to confirmed model’s performance. BMP in children with MPP were found in 196 (22.5%) and 91(22.8%) patients in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The independent risk factors associated with BMP were age >5years (OR 2.06; 95% CI 1.43 to 2.98), higher IL-10 level (>10 ng/L, 2.19; 95% CI 1.46 to 3.28), higher IFN-γ level (>30 ng/L, 1.69; 95% CI 1.13 to 2.54), and presence of complication (3.43; 95% CI 1.45 to 8.09). Incorporating these 4 factors, the nomogram achieved good concordance indexes of 0.771(95% CI, 0.734–0.808) and 0.796 (95% CI, 0.744–0.848) in predicting BMP in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The nomogram achieved an optimal prediction of BMP in children with MPP. Using this model, the risk of BMP formation would be determined, contributing to a rational therapeutic choice.
