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  • 标题:Quantifying the immediate computational effects of preceding outcomes on subsequent risky choices
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Hayley R. Brooks ; Peter Sokol-Hessner
  • 期刊名称:Scientific Reports
  • 电子版ISSN:2045-2322
  • 出版年度:2020
  • 卷号:10
  • 期号:1
  • 页码:1-10
  • DOI:10.1038/s41598-020-66502-y
  • 出版社:Springer Nature
  • 摘要:Forty years ago, prospect theory introduced the notion that risky options are evaluated relative to their recent context, causing a significant shift in the study of risky monetary decision-making in psychology, economics, and neuroscience. Despite the central role of past experiences, it remains unclear whether, how, and how much past experiences quantitatively influence risky monetary choices moment-to-moment in a nominally learning-free setting. We analyzed a large dataset of risky monetary choices with trial-by-trial feedback to quantify how past experiences, or recent events, influence risky choice behavior and the underlying processes. We found larger recent outcomes both negatively influence subsequent risk-taking and positively influence the weight put on potential losses. Using a hierarchical Bayesian framework to fit a modified version of prospect theory, we demonstrated that the same risks will be evaluated differently given different past experiences. The computations underlying risky decision-making are fundamentally dynamic, even if the environment is not.
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