期刊名称：Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
印刷版ISSN：0027-8424
电子版ISSN：1091-6490
出版年度：2020
卷号：117
期号：19
页码：10225-10233
DOI：10.1073/pnas.1910719117
出版社：The National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
摘要：Rainfall anomalies have long occupied center stage in policy discussions, and understanding their impacts on agricultural production has become more important as climate change intensifies. However, the global scale of rainfall-induced productivity shocks on changes in cropland is yet to be quantified. Here we identify how rainfall anomalies impact observed patterns of cropped areas at a global scale by leveraging locally determined unexpected variations in rainfall. Employing disaggregated panel data at the grid level, we find that repeated dry anomalies lead to an increase in cropland expansion in developing countries. No discernible effects are detected from repeated wet events. That these effects are confined to developing countries, which are often dominated by small-holder farmers, implies that they may be in response to reduced yields. The estimates suggest that overall, in developing countries, dry anomalies account for ∼9% of the rate of cropland expansion over the past two decades. We perform several tests to check for consistency and robustness of this relationship. First, using forest cover as an alternative measure, we find comparable reductions in forest cover in the same regions where cropland expands due to repeated dry anomalies. Second, we test the relationship in regions where yields are buffered from rainfall anomalies by irrigation infrastructure and find that the impact on cropland expansion is mitigated, providing further support for our results. Since cropland expansion is a significant driver of deforestation, these results have important implications for forest loss and environmental services.
关键词：rainfall variability ; agricultural expansion ; land use change ; deforestation ; dams
