期刊名称：Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
印刷版ISSN：0027-8424
电子版ISSN：1091-6490
出版年度：2021
卷号：118
期号：7
页码：1
DOI：10.1073/pnas.2100769118
出版社：The National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
摘要：Science impacts our daily lives and guides national and international policies (1). Thus, results of scientific studies are of paramount importance; yet, there are concerns that many studies are not reproducible or replicable (2). To address these concerns, the National Research Council conducted a Consensus Study [NASEM 2019 (3)] that provides definitions of key concepts, discussions of problems, and recommendations for dealing with these problems. These recommendations are useful and well considered, but they do not go far enough in our opinion. The NASEM recommendations treat reproducibility and replicability as single-study issues, despite clear acknowledgement of the limitations of isolated studies and the need for research synthesis (3). We advocate a strategic approach to research, focusing on the accumulation of evidence via designed sequences of studies, as a means of dealing more effectively with reproducibility, replicability, and related problems. These sequences are designed to provide iterative tests based on comparison of data from empirical studies with predictions from competing hypotheses. Evidence is then formally accumulated based on the relative predictive abilities of the different hypotheses as the sequential studies proceed. To deal more effectively with reproducibility, replicability, and related problems, scientists should pursue a strategic approach to research, focusing on the accumulation of evidence via designed sequences of studies. Image credit: Dave Cutler (artist). In many disciplines, single studies are seldom adequate to substantially increase knowledge by themselves. Examples of Platt’s (4) “crucial experiments,” which are capable of definitively discriminating among competing hypotheses, can be found but are rare. Thus, we view individual study results as building blocks and the accumulation of evidence as requiring multiple studies of the same phenomena (5⇓–7). This view can be incorporated strategically into research planning by developing sequences of studies to investigate focal hypotheses.
