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  • 标题:UM CASO PARA POLÍTICA INDUSTRIAL? RESULTADOS DE PREVISÕES PARA A ECONOMIA BRASILEIRA (2016-2025) A PARTIR DE UM MODELO DESAGREGADO DE CRESCIMENTO RESTRINGIDO PELO BP
  • 其他标题:A CASE FOR INDUSTRIAL POLICY? FORECAST RESULTS FROM A DISAGGREGATED BOP-CONSTRAINED GROWTH MODEL FOR BRAZILIAN ECONOMY (2016-2025)
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Rodrigues, Cryslãine Flavia da Silva ; Lourenço, André Luís Cabral de
  • 期刊名称:Revista de Economia Contemporânea
  • 印刷版ISSN:1415-9848
  • 电子版ISSN:1980-5527
  • 出版年度:2021
  • 卷号:25
  • 期号:1
  • 页码:1-24
  • DOI:10.1590/198055272512
  • 出版社:Instituto de Economa da Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro
  • 摘要:The article aimed to forecast the Brazilian economy’s growth potential in the 2016-2025 period, assuming the absence of changes in industrial policy. It is based on a formal growth model constrained by the balance of payments (BOP) developed by the authors and disaggregated into three sectors (farming, industry, and services). All its parameters were econometrically estimated, including those of the world economy relevant to the Brazilian economy’s performance. Assuming that the current macroeconomic management “tripod” was maintained in the country, the basic interest rate and exchange rate policy were calibrated to generate the maximum growth rate allowed by the external constraint compatible with the maintenance of inflation in target each year. Forecasts were also made about the performance of the three sectors’ key variables, resulting from such calibration. Forecasted potential GDP and productivity growth were low (even by recent historical standards) and decreasing over time, with slower growth in the industrial sector than in other ones. The results revealed the critical importance of the industrial sector for such performance, suggesting that an efficient industrial policy could significantly increase the Brazilian economy’s growth potential.
  • 关键词:simulação macroeconômica;crescimento econômico;indústria;Brasil
  • 其他关键词:macroeconomic simulation;economic growth;industry;Brazil
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