摘要：In developing countries in general and in Vietnam in particular, flood induced economic loss of agriculture is a serious concern since livelihood of large populations depends on agricultural production. The objective of this study was to examine if climate change would exacerbate flood damage to agricultural production with a case study of rice production in Huong Son District of Ha Tinh Province, North-central Vietnam. The study applied a modeling approach for the prediction. Extreme precipitation and its return periods were calculated by GEV distribution method using historical daily observations and output of MRI-CGCM3 climate model. The projected extreme precipitation data was then employed as an input of Mike Flood model for flood modeling. Finally, an integrated approach employing flood depth and duration and crop calendar was used for the prediction of potential economic loss of rice production. Results of the study show that in comparison with the baseline period, an increase of 49.14% in the intensity of extreme precipitation was expected, while the frequency would increase 5 times by 2050s. As a result, the seriousness of floods would increase under climate change impacts as they would become more intensified, deeper and longer, and consequently the economic loss of rice production would increase significantly. While the level of peak flow was projected to rise nearly one meter, leading the area of rice inundated to increase by 12.61%, the value of damage would rise by over 21% by 2050s compared to the baseline period. The findings of the present study are useful for long-term agricultural and infrastructural planning in order to tackle with potential flooding threats to agricultural production under climate change impacts.
关键词：Climate Change; modeling; Rice production; flood economic loss; Loss function
