摘要：This study aimed to assess and forecast the effect of energy price reform of diesel and electricity on Saudi agricultural Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The study applied simultaneous equations model (SEM) consisting of four behavioral equations in the logarithmic formula, using the three stages least squared method (3SLS) based on time series data during the period 2000-2018, using EViews software. The estimated SEM were used for forecasting until 2025 using different scenarios. The results of the augmented Dicky Fuller test show that the variables are differenced stationary, that are needed because the applied (3SLS) least squares method assumes the stationarity of the analyzed time series. The results of the estimated SEM indicated that, the quantity of electricity and that of water are the main factors affecting agricultural GDP, and agricultural demand for electricity is inelastic. In addition, an increase of 100% in the number of food processing projects and of the export of agricultural raw materials, would lead to an increase in the agricultural gross product by 5.1% and 1.7% respectively. In that regards the study recommend encouragement of food industry rather than exporting agricultural raw materials. The forecasting models indicated that implementation of the energy price reform plan to agriculture up to phase two (scenario 1) is the best scenario leading to growth rate of 6.5% of gross GDP during the forecasting period of 2020-2025. The full energy price reform plan (scenario 2) will lead to a continuous decrease in agricultural GDP. In addition full price liberalization of electricity (scenario 3) and that of diesel (scenario 4) will decrease the agricultural GDP by 6.6% and 5.7% respectively. The study recommend that the energy price reform to be limited to phase one. Furthermore if the implementation of the plan will continue, it recommends separate application of electricity price reform and that of diesel to reduce the negative effect of their joint application on agricultural GDP.
其他关键词：Agricultural Gross Product, Energy and Water Consumption, Energy Pricing Policy Reform, Saudi Vision 2030, Simultaneous Equations Model
