摘要：The influences of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the winter rainfall in southern China exhibit prominent interannual variations. In general, when MJO is active over the Indian Ocean (western Pacific), winter rainfall in southern China increases (decreases) substantially; however, it also decreases (increases) significantly in some winters. The anomalous atmospheric circulation, especially the intraseasonal and low-frequency circulation anomalies, like are responsible for these variations. Both the intraseasonal and low-frequency circulation anomalies are almost opposite between wetter and drier winters MJO is active over the Indian Ocean and the western Pacific, which leads to the different moisture convergences in southern China. As a result, the influences of MJO over the same region on winter rainfall in southern China are different. When MJO is active over the Indian Ocean, the moisture convergence (divergence) in wetter (drier) winters is dominated primarily by the meridional (zonal) moisture convergence (divergence) and advection. When MJO is active over the western Pacific, in both wetter and drier winters, the anomalous moisture divergence is controlled by the meridional moisture divergence and advection. Therefore, it is not only the location and intensity of MJO activity that are important; the anomalous circulation and moisture on different timescales (in particular the intraseasonal and low-frequency timescales) should be considered in the operational weather forecast when using MJO as a predictor.
