摘要：The main purpose of the study is to find ways to introduce procedural and situational approaches in the process of formation and implementation of state policy in the field of higher education of physical culture in Eastern Europe. The methodological basis is the scenario method, the basic structural elements and signs of which are monitoring the sequence of events of determining the cause-effect relationships of the stages of transformation; transformation of the process under study; the hypothetical nature of the description. The main standards of the selected methods were the observance of ethical and professional rules for conducting the assessment. The data obtained allow to build alternative pictures of the future, which makes it possible to overcome the continuous variability and the infinite number of available opportunities for the development strategy of the educational system. Research has limitations. The technique of cognitive modelling was carried out exclusively on public policy and education system. In the future, the methods of the presented cognitive modelling, in particular the scenario method, can be adapted to other industries. The results of cognitive modeling were based on assessing the specifics of the basic concepts that affect the prognostic trends in the development of higher education of physical culture in Eastern Europe and can be used to improve their state policy in this area. The originality of the study lies in the modelling a cognitive map of the development the sphere of education, and a detailed analysis of the system of impact indicators was created at the heart on this map.
