期刊名称：Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
印刷版ISSN：2288-4637
电子版ISSN：2288-4645
出版年度：2021
卷号：8
期号：1
页码：833-840
DOI：10.13106/jafeb.2021.vol8.no1.833
语种：English
出版社：Korean Distribution Science Association
摘要：This paper examines the effect of the interest rate set by Bank Indonesia on financial system stability as measured by the credit gap in Indonesia for quarterly data for the period 1976 Q1 to 2019 Q4. We suppose that the relationship between the Central Bank rate and the credit gap is non-linear. Hence, this study applies a smooth transition regression (STR) model to investigate the relationship between these variables. Our results are: first, by performing STR estimation we obtained a threshold level of Central Bank rate of 2.01. Second, a decrease in the Central Bank rate results in a reduction in the credit gap when the Central Bank rate is above or below the threshold level. The effect of the Central Bank rate is five times greater for the high regime than for the low regime. Third, we find evidence that the effect of the exchange rate, economic growth, inflation, and GDP per capita on the credit gap for the high regime is the opposite of the low regime. We suggest that policymakers need to keep the Central Bank interest rate low and stable so that the role of the bank as a financial intermediary remains stable and conducive to strengthening financial stability.
关键词：Central Bank Rate;Credit Gap;Exchange Rate;Non-Linear Estimation
