摘要：The aim of the article is to identify structural breaks in empirical time series for tourist arrivals and departures in the European Union in the years 1995-2018. Tourism is a branch of economy strongly susceptible to negative shocks such as epidemics,social unrest,economic crisis,political turmoil,terrorist attacks,and legal changes.They are immediately visible in decreasing interest in tourist trips. Structural breaks not only distort the structure of econometric analysis but also hinder a decision making process for both entrepreneurs (travel agencies,hotels,restaurants etc.) and customers. Each econometric model is only a certain more or less accurate mathematical and statistical tool to describe the phenomenon one is interested in. An irregular course of the process (phenomenon) over time may not be a sufficient reason to turn to the simplest linear statisticaleconometric tools. Therefore,this paper uses tests for single and multiple structural breaks,i.e.Perron test,Andrews and Zivot test as well as Bai and Perron test. These tests were used to confirm the presence of structural breaks in the empirical time series. The results indicate that structural breaks in the tourism departures and arrivals in the EU coincide with the dates of economic crises,particularly the recession in the years 2008-2009 and Eurozone crisis in 2013. The results of forecasting tourist departures and arrivals are promising in the short run. It is recommended to monitor a sequence of forecastsif they are usedin the decision making processes.
关键词：structural break;economic crises;tourism industry;time series model;forecasting
