摘要：Current changes in tropical precipitation from satellite data and climate models are
assessed. Wet and dry regions of the tropics are defined as the highest 30% and lowest 70%
of monthly precipitation values. Observed tropical ocean trends in the wet regime (1.8%/decade) and the dry
regions (−2.6%/decade) according to the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) over the
period including Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) data (1988–2008),
where GPCP is believed to be more reliable, are of smaller magnitude than when
including the entire time series (1979–2008) and closer to model simulations than
previous comparisons. Analysing changes in extreme precipitation using daily
data within the wet regions, an increase in the frequency of the heaviest 6% of
events with warming for the SSM/I observations and model ensemble mean is
identified. The SSM/I data indicate an increased frequency of the heaviest events with
warming, several times larger than the expected Clausius–Clapeyron scaling and at
the upper limit of the substantial range in responses in the model simulations.
