摘要：The dynamics of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon are complex. A growing
debate considers the extent to which deforestation is a result of the expansion
of the Brazilian soy industry. Most recent analyses suggest that deforestation
is driven by the expansion of cattle ranching, rather than soy. Soy seems to be
replacing previously deforested land and/or land previously under pasture. In this
study, we use municipality-level statistics on agricultural and deforested areas
across the Legal Amazon from 2000 to 2006 to examine the spatial patterns and
statistical relationships between deforestation and changes in pasture and soybean
areas. Our results support previous studies that showed that deforestation is
predominantly a result of pasture expansion. However, we also find support for the
hypothesis that an increase of soy in Mato Grosso has displaced pasture further north,
leading to deforestation elsewhere. Although not conclusive, our findings suggest
that the debate surrounding the drivers of Amazon deforestation is not over,
and that indirect causal links between soy and deforestation may exist that need
further exploration. Future research should examine more closely how interlinkages
between land area, prices, and policies influence the relationship between soy and
deforestation, in order to make a conclusive case for 'displacement deforestation'.
