摘要：The physical basis for the change in global-mean precipitation projected to occur with the warming
associated with increased greenhouse gases is discussed. The expected increases to column water vapor
W control the rate of increase of global precipitation accumulation through its affect on the
planet's energy balance. The key role played by changes to downward longwave radiation
controlled by this changing water vapor is emphasized. The basic properties of molecular
absorption by water vapor dictate that the fractional rate of increase of global-mean
precipitation must be significantly less that the fractional rate of increase in water vapor
and it is further argued that this reduced rate of precipitation increase implies that
the timescale for water re-cycling is increased in the global mean. This further
implies less frequent precipitation over a fixed period of time, and the intensity of
these less frequent precipitating events must subsequently increase in the mean
to realize the increased global accumulation. These changes to the character of
global-mean precipitation, predictable consequences of equally predictable changes to
W, apply only to the global-mean state and not to the regional or local scale changes in
precipitation.
