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  • 标题:The effects of I(1) series on cointegration inference
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Yan-Xia Lin ; Michael Mccrae
  • 期刊名称:Advances in Decision Sciences
  • 印刷版ISSN:2090-3359
  • 电子版ISSN:2090-3367
  • 出版年度:2002
  • 卷号:6
  • 期号:4
  • 页码:229-240
  • DOI:10.1155/S1173912602000160
  • 出版社:Hindawi Publishing Corporation
  • 摘要:

    Under traditional cointegration tests, some eligible I ( 1 ) time series systems X t , that are not cointegrated over a given time period, say ( 0 , T 1 ] , sometimes test as cointegrated over sub-periods. That is, the system appears to have a stationary linear structure ζ ′ X t for certain vector ζ in the period 0 < t ≤ T 1 . Understanding the dynamics between cointegration test power and restricted sample size that causes this inversion of results is a crucial issue when forecasting over extended future time periods. In this paper, we consider non-cointegrated systems that are closely related to collinear systems. We apply a residual based procedure to such systems and establish a criterion for making the decision whether or not X t can be continuously accepted as I ( 0 ) for t > T 1 when X t was accepted as I ( 0 ) for t ≤ T 1 .

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