摘要：Unreliable rainfall may be a main cause of poverty in rural areas, such as the Kisumu
district by Lake Victoria in Kenya. Climate change may further increase the negative
effects of rainfall uncertainty. These effects could be mitigated to some extent
through improved and adaptive water resource management and planning, which
relies on our interpretations and projections of the coupled hydro-climatic system
behaviour and its development trends. In order to identify and quantify the main
differences and consistencies among such hydro-climatic assessments, this study
investigates trends and exemplifies their use for important water management
decisions for the Lake Victoria drainage basin (LVDB), based on local scale data for
the Orongo village in the Kisumu district, and regional scale data for the whole
LVDB. Results show low correlation between locally and regionally observed
hydro-climatic trends, and large differences, which in turn affects assessments of
important water resource management parameters. However, both data scales
converge in indicating that observed local and regional hydrological discharge
trends are primarily driven by local and regional water use and land use changes.
