摘要：This analysis of the Copenhagen Accord evaluates emission reduction pledges by individual
countries against the Accord's climate-related objectives. Probabilistic estimates of the climatic
consequences for a set of resulting multi-gas scenarios over the 21st century are calculated with
a reduced complexity climate model, yielding global temperature increase and atmospheric
CO2 and
CO2-equivalent concentrations. Provisions for banked surplus emission allowances and credits
from land use, land-use change and forestry are assessed and are shown to have the
potential to lead to significant deterioration of the ambition levels implied by the
pledges in 2020. This analysis demonstrates that the Copenhagen Accord and
the pledges made under it represent a set of dissonant ambitions. The ambition
level of the current pledges for 2020 and the lack of commonly agreed goals for
2050 place in peril the Accord's own ambition: to limit global warming to below
2 °C, and even
more so for 1.5 °C, which is referenced in the Accord in association with potentially strengthening the
long-term temperature goal in 2015. Due to the limited level of ambition by 2020, the
ability to limit emissions afterwards to pathways consistent with either the 2 or
1.5 °C goal is likely to become less feasible.
