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  • 标题:Forecasting with Univariate Time Series Models: A Case of Export Demand for Peninsular Malaysia’s Moulding and Chipboard
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Diana Emang ; Mahendran Shitan ; Awang Noor Abd. Ghani
  • 期刊名称:Journal of Sustainable Development
  • 印刷版ISSN:1913-9063
  • 电子版ISSN:1913-9071
  • 出版年度:2010
  • 卷号:3
  • 期号:3
  • 页码:157
  • DOI:10.5539/jsd.v3n3p157
  • 出版社:Canadian Center of Science and Education
  • 摘要:

    This study determines a suitable method from the univariate time series models to forecast the export demand of moulding and chipboard volume (m³) from Peninsular Malaysia using the quarterly data from March 1982 to June 2009. Export demand for moulding and chipboard were estimated using univariate time series models including the Holt-Winters Seasonal, ARAR algorithms and the seasonal ARIMA models. The seasonal ARIMA (1, 0, 4) X (0, 0, 1, 0)4 model produced the best forecast at the lowest forecast errors of MAPE, MAE and RMSE at 18.83%, 32730.8 and 35282.13, respectively. It forecasts the volume (m³) of moulding and chipboard for export to reach more than 150000 m3, and it is expected to be within range of 100000 to 250000 m3 at 95% confidence level. The forecasts assist in decision making process and facilitate a short-term marketing plan to meet the export demand from international market.

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