摘要：Tropical precipitation and the character of its adjustment in response to climate warming have
been examined in an ensemble of climate models. Partitioning the 500 hPa pressure velocity,
ω, into four basic dynamical regimes reveals that areas which exhibit a reversal of
ω from descent to ascent make a disproportionately large contribution to the total
precipitation change. The four regimes' occurrences are remarkably consistent across the
ten models considered but the inter-model spread of some of the precipitation changes is
very large. This large variation is, however, primarily due to two of the models, IPSL and
CCSM3. A further separation into 'dynamic' and 'thermodynamic' changes confirms that
the inter-model spread in precipitation is related to variations in the dynamical responses
of the models. The reliability of models for climate change studies can to some extent be
gauged by their ability to represent present day climate variability. An example, using
interannual variability, is presented for the Hadley Centre model, HadGEM1. This
highlights potential strengths and weaknesses of the model regarding simulation of
the relationships between precipitation, surface temperature, and the large-scale
circulation.
