摘要：Scenarios may be understood as products and/or processes. Viewing scenario exercises as
productive tends to emphasize their tangibility: scenario products may acquire value
unrelated to the processes of their creation. Viewing scenario exercises as procedural tends
to emphasize their modes of formation: the process of constructing scenarios may have
benefits irrespective of the value of ensuing products. These two framings yield different
expectations about how one might evaluate the 'success' or otherwise of scenario exercises.
We illustrate three approaches to evaluating the success or otherwise of scenarios using the
example of the series of national UK climate scenarios published between 1991 and 2002.
These are: predictive success (has the future turned out as envisaged?), decision
success (have 'good' decisions subsequently been made?) and learning success (have
scenarios proved engaging and enabled learning?). We reflect on the different
ways the 'success' of national climate scenarios might be evaluated and on the
relationship between the productive and procedural dimensions of scenario exercises.
