摘要：International discussions on reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation
(REDD) as a greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement strategy are ongoing under the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). In the light of these
discussions, it behooves countries to be able to determine the relative likelihood of
deforestation over a landscape and perform a first order estimation of the potential
reduction in GHGs associated with various protection scenarios. This would allow countries
to plan their interventions accordingly to maximize carbon benefits, alongside other
environmental and socioeconomic benefits, because forest protection programs might be
chosen in places where the perceived threat of deforestation is high whereas in reality the
threat is low. In this case study, we illustrate a method for creating deforestation
threat maps and estimating potential reductions in GHGs from eighteen protected
areas in East Kalimantan, Indonesia, that would occur if protection of these areas
was well enforced. Results from our analysis indicate that a further 230 720 ha of
East Kalimantan's forest area would be lost and approximately 305 million t
CO2 would be emitted from existing protected areas between 2003 and 2013 if the historical rate
of deforestation continued unabated. In other words, the emission of 305 million t
CO2 into the atmosphere would be avoided during this period if
protection of the existing areas was well enforced. At a price of
$4 per
ton of CO2 (approximate price on the Chicago Climate Exchange in August
2008), this represents an estimated gross income stream of about
$120 million per year. We also identified additional areas with high carbon stocks under high
deforestation threat that would be important to protect if the carbon benefits of avoided
deforestation activities are to be maximized in this region.
