摘要：Insight into long-term changes of streamflow is critical for addressing implications of global
warming for sustainable water management. To date, dendrohydrologists have
employed sophisticated regression techniques to extend runoff records, but this
empirical approach cannot directly test the influence of watershed factors that alter
streamflow independently of climate. We designed a mechanistic watershed model
to calculate streamflows at annual timescales using as few inputs as possible.
The model was calibrated for upper reaches of the Walker River, which straddles
the boundary between the Sierra Nevada of California and the Great Basin of
Nevada. Even though the model incorporated simplified relationships between
precipitation and other components of the hydrologic cycle, it predicted water year
streamflows with correlations of 0.87 when appropriate precipitation values were used.
