The devil's rampage: the Wildfire Scenario: a catastrophic fire holds an entire city hostage while residents and business owners run for their lives and firefighters risk theirs

The Hypothetical Scenario:

The California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection declared the fire season open slightly earlier than normal in early May as a result of the warm, dry weather and drought conditions during the previous winter. Emergency response dispatch levels increased, additional firefighters were hired and water tankers moved to strategic locations. A hot and dry summer led to more fires than usual across the state. In some areas, fire fighters work overtime and remain on alert ready to respond.

In mid-October, hot and dry Diablo winds start to blow across the San Francisco Bay area. The winds are expected to last for several days, increasing the fire hazard. Firefighters worry about the potential fire risk in the East Bay Hills. Because of the drought, there are a lot of dry materials in the dense underbrush that could spread the fire quickly to forested areas and to adjacent homes and businesses. These buildings are mostly built with wood and could easily catch fire. To make matters worse, there is generally little clearance between the buildings and the underbrush. The local roads are narrow and easily blocked by fire or abandoned vehicles. Firefighters remember a similar situation from the devastating 1991 Oakland fire. Fire danger notices around the hills are switched to "extreme" and access to forest areas is restricted to reduce the chances of a visitor starting a fire.

A small fire begins midday in a canyon behind the city of Piedmont. A neighbor spots the fire and calls 911. By the time firefighters arrive on the scene, several acres have already burned and the flames are approaching nearby buildings. Police immediately begin to evacuate about 100 nearby residents as the firefighters attempt to protect the buildings and homes threatened by the flames. Local radio stations broadcast a warning to residents near the fire site to be prepared to leave.

As firefighters battle, two other fires are spotted further along the hills. More help is called in as the first television news crews arrive on the scene. Local TV stations broadcast continuous coverage of what has become a very serious fire.

Winds pick up and the fire spreads rapidly and erratically. Despite heroic efforts from fire-fighters, several homes are already burning. More help is sought from neighboring counties but as the new fire crews arrive, they find the blaze spreading fast. Two fires combine into one rolling front. Stronger winds whip embers and burning debris into the air toward dry areas nearby. The fire front moves close to a four-lane freeway, which acts as a barrier between the burning woodlands and the major residential areas of Piedmont, a suburb of Oakland. The focus of the fire-fighting efforts aims at stopping the spread of the fire beyond the freeway. But by this time, more than 1,000 homes and businesses have already been consumed by flames and more than 5,000 people have been evacuated and relocated to temporary shelters. All through the night, the effort continues to contain the fire at the freeway firebreak. Trees are cleared along both sides of the freeway and firefighters hose down houses within 200 yards of the expressway.

By the next morning the fire has abated. It smolders all the way along the forested slopes facing the freeway but has not jumped across it. Firefighters begin to extinguish the remaining fires and push back the fire line away front the freeway. But weather forecasters radio a warning that wind speeds are increasing. Embers start to blow into the air as winds pick up. Fires burst back to life and fire chiefs order their men back. A rapidly circling wall of flame cuts off the retreat of one of the fire crews.

Embers whipped up by the wind have fallen across the freeway, igniting dozens of small fires that combine into a new front that begins to advance rapidly into the suburban neighborhood. Because of the dense vegetation, the fire spreads even more rapidly. Water pressure drops as hundreds and then thousands of homes collapse and burn, breaking the plumbing. In addition, electric power is lost in some areas, causing a failure of some water pumps. By now, the fire is spreading so rapidly that firefighters pull back to save their own lives. By midday, a full evacuation is underway and a perimeter is established around the city of Piedmont preventing traffic from entering. Only emergency vehicles are allowed in the streets. A cloud of smoke can be seen 30 miles away. Visibility throughout Oakland and nearby communities dwindles to less than 100 feet.

Businesses in Oakland, Berkeley and neighboring towns close. Managers send staff home and take critical documents and computer files with them. Business disaster plans are put into effect. Several commercial centers, containing grocery stores, restaurants and small businesses, are engulfed.

High winds persist during the daylight hours. The fire continues to advance, climbing the steep hills at the back of the city, and jumping from one wooden home and small business to the next.

Entire neighborhoods are destroyed--interspersed by patches where a few homes have escaped untouched by flames. In most cases, these homes were set back from other neighboring structures and away from vegetation. Although most of the buildings in this area have wood shingles, several of the surviving homes have composite or tile roofs, preventing flying embers from igniting roof fires.

By late afternoon, nearly 10,000 buildings have burned and tens of thousands of people are displaced. Plans are developed to evacuate another 100,000 people.

As the fire spreads downhill through the city of Piedmont, the terrain flattens and the streets widen. The progress of the fire slows and allows hundreds of firefighters from throughout northern California to mount an aggressive counterattack. This has some success with fires beginning to be contained. Finally, the winds abate, and by the third morning, the winds shift to blow onshore, forcing the fire back. Light rain arrives with the new winds and the fire is declared under control.

The economic loss consequences from such a firestorm scenario are approximately $9 billion. About 60 percent of these reflect insured property losses while 40 percent are in other losses.

Insured losses are 80 percent residential--split between 70 percent for property losses and 30 percent for content losses, auto and health claims. Victims of the fire file hundreds of claims, the bulk of which are for the total loss of property. While claims for total fire loss dominate, there are dozens of smaller claims seeking compensation for damage from smoke. Commercial claims are split among property, contents and business interruption.

In the final tally, 10,000 buildings burned--mostly wooden structures. More than 95 percent of the homes in the area were wooden but only 25 percent of the commercial buildings were made of wood. About 30,000 residents were affected by the catastrophe and 17,000 fire victims were displaced. Few casualties were reported because residents were quick to evacuate, given their previous experience with catastrophic fire threats in the region.

RELATED ARTICLE: Flames fan through history.

Major urban conflagrations occur repeatedly throughout history. One of the earliest, the Great Fire of Rome, dates back to July of 64 AD. The modern insurance industry was established to offer homeowners' fire insurance in England after the Great Fire of London in September 1666. High winds fanned a fire in a bakery shop in the city that then spread and destroyed 13,000 densely packed homes and businesses or about 80 percent of London.

Numerous large fires occurred in cities in more modern history including the Great 1871 Chicago fire that started in a stable and consumed more than 17,000 buildings, causing the deaths of 250 people during 18 hours. This fire occurred simultaneously with the Peshtigo, Wisconsin fire that burned 2,400 square miles and killed more than 1,200 people. Using present day values these losses cost between $4 and $10 billion.

More recently, the 1906 San Francisco fire following the earthquake led to 28,000 buildings destroyed over three days. Losses are estimated at more than $6 billion in present day values.

Fire suppression capabilities have improved within city areas since the 1950s. Most large urban fires have been the result of either earthquakes or wildfires that started close to urban areas. The U.S. cities most at risk to wild fires are those in the Western states, particularly California. Historically, significant urban losses happened in the San Francisco Bay Area and in Southern California around the Los Angeles and San Diego metropolitan areas.

Cities in the hills of San Francisco's East Bay are adjacent to wildfire areas. Fires that start in the forests of the hills can spread into the inhabited areas. This region has a Mediterranean climate and is subject to the "Diablo"--or Devil--winds, which are hot and dry.

This Oakland Hills fire was a result of extreme conditions created by a five-year drought and low humidity. The fire spread quickly, fanned by a fast Diablo wind, to buildings on the hillsides that were surrounded by dense vegetation. It moved on to the urban areas where most of the houses are made of wood and wood shingles and sit close to each other. It became a firestorm feeding on closely spaced homes, limiting the chances to effectively fight the fire. Losses resulting from the Oakland Hills fire exceeded $1.5 billion.

Climate and weather conditions similar to the East Bay Hills are present in Southern California. There the hot and dry Santa Ana winds blow off the mountains at speeds of up to 70 mph. This can create explosive conditions when combined with flammable brush. During these conditions, fires occur and can result in disaster. It has happened more than twelve times since 1970. The most notorious happened in 1993 in Los Angeles. It happened again last year in the Los Angeles and San Diego metropolitan areas, resulting in losses exceeding $3 billion. Both fires occurred in late October and early November and burned thousands of homes and businesses in a few days.

Although wildfires can occur everywhere in the United States, resulting catastrophic insured losses have historically been reported more frequently in the Western United States. The largest catastrophic loss wildfires since 1970 occurred in California because of the growing urbanization encroaching on wilderness areas and of ever-present fire weather conditions. Property development into the vulnerable areas has increased the risk of extensive property damage. Recent studies show that about one million housing traits are within California's vulnerable areas with large concentrations of exposures in the metropolitan areas. Given the appropriate conditions, a 100-year wildfire loss event could occur in any region of California with large concentrations of properties.

Hypothetical Wildlife Losses in
Piedmont, California

Type of Loss                 Total Loss        Insured Losses

Property and                   $6 billion         $4 billion
infrastructure damage
Worker's compensation,        $60 million        $60 million
life and health costs
Direct costs of              $1.6 billion       $800 million
business interruption
Other costs                  $1.6 billion           --
Total Direct Costs:          $8.7 billion       $4.9 billion
Total number of                  25
people killed:
Total hospitalized               20
with serious injuries:
Total treated at                200
outpatient clinics:

Source: Risk Management Solutions

AUGUSTE BOISSONADE, PHD., has more than 20 years of experience in risk assessment of natural hazards in the United States, Europe, Africa and Asia. Prior to joining Risk Management Solutions, he was with Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory developing seismic hazard guidelines for the U.5, Nuclear Regulatory Commission and guidelines on natural hazards for the U.S. Dept. of Energy.

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