Commentary: Where do Marylanders believe the state's economy is

Are Marylanders growing more pessimistic about the state's economic future, or has their optimism merely plateaued?

The results of The Daily Record's new statewide survey indicate fewer Marylanders are bullish heading into 2005 than were leading into 2004. Thirty-two percent of respondents said Maryland's economy will perform much better or somewhat better next year. Last year, 37 percent said the same.

However, there was no corresponding increase in the number of people who expect worsening conditions. Just 16 percent predicted that our economy will deteriorate, compared with 18 percent last year. A substantial plurality expects little or no change - 39 percent, the same percentage as said the same last year.

So what does it mean for you and your business? Like so much, it just depends.

The survey reveals wide differences of opinions among people based on income levels, education levels, race, age, geography and other factors.

For instance, people with children in their households are more likely to be optimistic than people without kids. If optiism translates into spending, retailers with children's merchandise appear to be poised for good times.

Likewise, if your company caters to men, 2005 may prove to be a very good year. Thirty-eight percent of men expect a better economy next year, compared with just 27 percent of women (For information about the margin of error, see sidebar).

Predictably, Marylanders responded similarly when asked about job growth (33 percent anticipate an increase in the number of jobs, 18 percent a decrease). But two numbers really jump out on this question. People who live outside the central Maryland corridor expect growth in much greater numbers (40 percent) than do those inside the corridor (26 percent). And more white/Caucasians are hopeful (37 percent) than minorities (23 percent).

Like last year, the survey also includes questions about spending habits, Maryland as a place to do business, retirement planning, education and overall happiness. The results for each question are summarized on pages 4 through 15. Complete data are available at www.mddailyrecord.com.

What's inside?

The magazine in your hands represents a merger of sorts. Wanting to provide our readers with a valuable and complete business guide for the year ahead, The Daily Record has combined Prologue and Doing Business in Maryland. I take complete credit for the original name of the new magazine - Prologue: Doing Business in Maryland.

The three major components of the publication are the statewide survey, a region-by-region breakdown of Maryland and profiles of the state's myriad industries. There are also features about how to find real estate,

financing for your business and a school for your kids.

The idea is to provide you with a one-of-a-kind tool to grow your business in Maryland, move your business within Maryland or move it from somewhere else to Maryland. I hope you find the magazine instructive and entertaining.

Finally, while we wouldn't exist without you, and we are always so thankful for that, this magazine wouldn't exist without the extra effort put in by our entire staff. That said, a few people deserve special recognition.

Talk about cool. Assistant Editor Carrie Taschner is unflappable, no matter the amount or complexity of the work. She is, to borrow a phrase, a harbor in a tempest. And she's smart to boot.

Then there's Carrie's yang, Kristen Keener. Kristen, our associate editor, burns red hot in the name of accuracy and precision at all times. And she does it as the ideal teammate, leaping in to help without being asked and despite her own daunting workload, redirecting the praise she's earned to others, and taking the blame others deserve to protect them. Were there more of her kind.

Then there's Z. Todd Zimmerman is our art director and my main man. Hence the witty nickname. His exceptional talent is matched only by his passion to perform better every day. He's more than a pleasure to work with; he's an inspiration.

Happy New Year.

Mark R. Cheshire is editor in chief and vice president of The Daily Record. He can be reached at 410-752-3849 or mark.cheshire@mddailyrecord.com.

Sampling error explanation for The Daily Record statewide survey

In research, because the entire population is typically not interviewed, but rather a sample of that population is surveyed, the data are subject to sampling error.

The margin of error is a measure of the accuracy of projecting survey data to the entire population on which the sample was based. The smaller the margin of error, the more accurate the survey findings will be.

As might be expected, as the number of completed surveys increases, the margin of error decreases, or the accuracy of the projection being made improves.

The maximum sampling error of the data for the total sample of 311 is plus or minus 5.6 percent at the 95 percent confidence level. However, depending upon the data being examined, the fluctuation may be smaller.

Molly Goldman, a research manager for WB&A Market Research in Crofton, directed The Daily Record's second annual statewide survey. She also conducted the first. Goldman can be reached at 410-721-0500 or mgoldman@WBandA.com.

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